Mezzo is pleased to publish the Fall 2026 edition of Industry Insights: Global Packaging. The Executive Summary is below. Download the full report for detailed data, exhibits, and our forward view.
Executive Summary
The combined challenges of disruptive trade policy, rising interest rates, and input price inflation have all served to dampen M&A activity in 2026. This is not a packaging-specific phenomenon, however, and Packaging remains a dynamic, innovation-driven industry with great opportunity to build value both organically and via M&A. There are several learnings from 2026 year-to-date that we are watching as we finish 2026 and head into 2027.
Transaction Volumes suffered as we progressed through 2026
Excluding Machinery & Equipment (more on this below), Packaging Transactions decreased in volume for the four quarters ending September 2026 vs. the four quarters ending September 2025 by -8%. This trend accelerated in Q3, with that quarter showing the fewest transactions since Q3 of 2020 (amid Covid). As we entered 2026, we had hoped that the M&A market would stabilize and return to modest growth as both Buyers and Sellers became inured to policy volatility. We are still waiting for this to happen.
Shared Deal Count Decreases – with one bright spot
Among discrete packaging segments there have been significant decreases in volumes, including Labels (-28%), Flexibles (-19%), Distribution / Contract Packaging (-14%), and Multi-format (-20%). The bright spot was Paper-based transactions (+9%). Paper, with a well-developed recycling infrastructure, remains the substrate of choice for sustainability, with much touted “paperization” attracting investors to the space.
Prices Holding, but…
Comparing 2023-2024 and 2025 to year-to-date 2026, overall pricing has held up. This steady EBITDA multiple was sustained by increases in pricing among Machinery & Equipment, Distribution/Contract Packaging and Multi-format Packaging. The remaining segments all witnessed a nearly one-turn of EBITDA decrease in pricing during this period. The weighted-average EBITDA multiple of 8.6x is close to the long-term average, and we do not anticipate much change, positive or negative, in the near term.
Machinery & Equipment
We segmented the Machinery & Equipment sector from the above numbers as we expanded our scope to incorporate a larger number of these transactions, which makes comparisons misleading. Nevertheless, we believe that there has been an increase in these transactions for YTD 2026. Given the struggle that many equipment providers have noted this year (tariffs, input cost increases, lack of executed POs for new equipment), we suspect that providers, facing a lack of new installs, have turned to M&A as a method of growing their businesses. Indeed, many of these transactions were smaller tuck-ins to add specific products/technology or market access. Given market conditions, we advise investors to focus on those equipment providers with a lower average selling price and more substantial aftermarket business lines.
Paper Pricing Increases
Fiber inputs are still adjusting from the near 10% reduction in containerboard capacity taken off-line by year-end 2025. The rationalization in NA was in response to years of softening demand following the race to meet the pandemic volume surge. This, combined with increases in paper makers’ costs (power, freight), has led to price increases which accelerated through the year with continued upward momentum. As pricing eventually stabilizes, non-integrated packaging converters will face a more disciplined supply base. Paper capacity rationalization shifts bargaining power toward integrated players; independents should double down on procurement strategy and value‑added niches.
Resin Pricing Increases
The ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Russia/Ukraine have wreaked havoc on resin pricing. This year witnessed runups at the beginning of the year followed by a mid-year softening that still left resin prices meaningfully elevated year-to-date. As we mentioned earlier this year, we have seen the end of the prior recent historical period of relative stability of pricing among packaging resins such as HDPE, LDPE, PET, and PP. Given ongoing uncertainty, discipline in contracts and supply strategy is essential to overall business strategy and long-term success.
Stress on Sustainable Business Models
The drumbeat for sustainability did not subside in 2025, particularly for resin-based and composite packaging. We struggle, however, to reconcile the demand for sustainability against an equally loud drumbeat of recycling companies failing. The market has not yet found a way to support economic models for recycling, particularly in the face of competitive virgin resins. There is a reckoning in recycling that needs to happen if we are to break out of this cycle. As sustainability remains non-negotiable for brands (and regulators), the Packaging Industry should prioritize design‑led technologies (downgauging, mono‑material) over unproven recycling economics.